A Disagreement on Tariffs

With many of President Trump’s policies, he and his critics agree about the likely effects even if they sharply disagree about the wisdom of those effects.

Consider this list of predictions: Elon Musk’s efforts to cut government spending will weaken the federal government. Trump’s overhaul of the Justice Department will make it more loyal to him and his allies. His immigration policies will reduce the number of people coming to the United States. His Europe policies will cause the continent to be less reliant on the U.S. His assault on D.E.I. will shrink diversity programs in both the government and the private sector.

Tariffs, however, are an exception. Trump and his critics don’t disagree only about whether they are a good idea; the two sides also have diametrically opposed predictions about what will happen if Trump implements even some of the tariffs he has promised.

His critics — including some Republicans — believe that imposing fees on imports will damage the U.S. economy. They say the possibility has already created uncertainty that is anathema to business investment. When more tariffs are in effect, they will raise prices for consumers and hurt more American manufacturers than they help. (Think of an automaker that will have to pay more for the raw materials and parts it buys from overseas.) Some people who are alarmed by Trump even tell me that they’re quietly rooting for him to go big on tariffs because they think it will damage his presidency.

Trump’s advisers have a very different prediction. They believe the concerns about uncertainty are overblown. They think the mere threat of tariffs will cause other countries to reduce their own barriers to U.S. companies. (Already, European Union officials have signaled they will cut tariffs on American cars to appease Trump.) And Trump’s team says that tariffs will have more benefits than downsides.

Navarro’s case