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When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences — higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession.
Three months later, inflation remains muted, the job market remains strong and forecasters have dialed backed their recession predictions.
“The so-called ‘Experts’ were wrong again,” Mr. Trump declared on social media last week. “Tariffs are making our Country ‘BOOM.’”
Not so fast, economists say. They point to evidence that the effects of tariffs are starting to show up in the economic statistics, albeit in subtle ways.
Data from the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that overall inflation remained tame in June, but that prices were up sharply in some categories affected by tariffs, such as toys and appliances. The job market, too, is starting to show some cracks, and there are signs consumers have begun to pull back their spending.
Economists expect that evidence to mount in the months ahead, as companies use up inventories built up before the tariffs took effect and begin passing costs on to customers.
Cumulative change in prices since Inauguration Day
