For Some Autocrats, Even Rigged Elections Can Be Too Much of a Threat

Middle East|For Some Autocrats, Even Rigged Elections Can Be Too Much of a Threat

Over the last two decades, countries like Turkey, Hungary, Venezuela and India gave the world a lesson on how democracy can erode into “competitive authoritarianism” — a system in which elections are still meaningful, but leaders manipulate the rules to their own benefit, while systematically violating civil liberties.

Now, we are starting to find out what happens when even partial democracy becomes a significant threat to the authoritarians.

The latest example comes from Turkey, where protests are raging across the country after the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and the country’s most prominent opposition politician. The government accused him of accepting bribes, rigging bids and misusing citizens’ personal data; he has denied the charges. (Istanbul University also rescinded his diploma; holding a university degree is a requirement for Turkish presidential candidates.)

Mr. Imamoglu’s growing popularity had made him a significant contender in Turkey’s next presidential election, and he was jailed pending his trial on the day of his party’s presidential primary. His arrest, experts say, sent a clear message that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is no longer willing to give the opposition a real chance to win elections.

Mr. Erdogan seems to have recognized that even if he manipulates the system, he may not be able to beat Mr. Imamoglu, said Lisel Hintz, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins University who studies Turkish politics.

“So this move is an anticipatory move, trying to take the one individual who could potentially challenge Erdogan off the playing field,” she said. “This is really a clear shift from what we would call competitive authoritarianism to full authoritarianism.”