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News Analysis
Almost all of the cuts that Republicans hope to pass in the coming weeks will last only until President Trump is set to leave office.
May 14, 2025Updated 3:21 p.m. ET
The strategy is an old one for Republicans: Cut taxes for a few years, avoiding the need to account for their cost over the long term, and bet that the reductions become popular enough that Congress will later vote to continue them.
The tax bill that Republicans are now putting together on Capitol Hill takes the gambit to a whole new level.
Almost all of the new tax cuts that Republicans have included in the bill, which could evolve over the coming weeks, will last only until the end of 2028, just days before President Trump is set to leave office. That includes a $500 increase to the child tax credit and a $1,000 bonus to the standard deduction, as well as Mr. Trump’s pledges to not tax tips or overtime pay.
A chart showing a selection of proposed provisions in the draft version of the G.O.P. tax bill and when they are set to expire.
2025
End of Trump’s term
2026
2028
2030
PERMANENT
No tax on tips
$1,000 increase in standard deduction
No tax on overtime
$500 increase in child tax credit
$4,000 increase in standard deduction for seniors
Tax break for research and development
Lower tax rates
Higher standard deduction
Tax break for business owners
Higher estate tax threshold
2025
End of Trump’s term
2026
2028
2030
PERMANENT
No tax on tips
$1,000 increase in standard deduction
No tax on overtime
$500 increase in child tax credit
$4,000 increase in standard deduction for seniors
Tax break for research and development
Lower tax rates
Higher standard deduction
Tax break for business owners
Higher estate tax threshold
The effect would be to shower many Americans with hundreds of dollars per year, starting when they file taxes next year, a windfall that would dry up as Mr. Trump leaves office. Even babies could cash in, with children born during Mr. Trump’s term — but not before Jan. 1, 2025, or after Dec. 31, 2028 — each receiving a $1,000 deposit to new “MAGA accounts” created under the bill.
For a president who put his name on the stimulus checks the federal government sent during his first term, the appeal of putting cash into Americans’ pockets is clear. But some analysts and many Democrats warn that any gains from the tax cuts, already concentrated among the rich, could be overwhelmed by the cuts to health care and food assistance that Republicans also intend to include in the legislation. And economists expect that the temporary cuts would, at best, provide a short sugar high to the economy overall.
