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Of all of Elon Musk’s explosive X posts last week during his public sparring with President Trump, perhaps the one that received the least attention was his call for a third party.
Even if it had gotten more attention, it still might not have gotten much respect. The idea of a centrist third party has been a bit of a running joke in recent years. Every cycle, someone writes an op-ed calling for a moderate bid from someone like Joe Manchin, it gets widely panned, and nothing happens.
But a serious third-party candidacy may not be a joke for much longer. While there are plenty of obstacles, the conditions for a successful third party could be coming into place.
It’s worth being very clear at the outset: I’m not predicting the emergence of a third party. The conditions for pandas to breed may be in place when you put two pandas in a room, but it doesn’t mean breeding is likely. But once two pandas are in a room, it’s no longer a joke to suggest they might breed.
What’s changed? Over the last few years, a new constituency has begun to emerge. For now, it does not have a home in either party, and it is not clear that either party will be able to easily accommodate its demands. The emergence of this kind of marginalized constituency is the overlooked precondition for a third party. Mr. Musk, while hardly representative, is an example of someone who falls into this group.
What’s the group? It doesn’t have a name, but it favors things like deficit reduction, deregulation, free trade and high-skilled immigration. It may be recognizable by the labels its critics on both the left and right have already assigned: “neoliberals” or “globalists.” (Though, to be fair, this new group doesn’t necessarily idealize markets or oppose government spending.)
