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Opinion|Israeli Dominance Will Make Mideast Deal-Making All the Harder
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/opinion/israel-palestinians-syria-lebanon.html
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Guest Essay
April 14, 2025, 1:00 a.m. ET
By Aaron David Miller and Steven Simon
Mr. Miller, a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator, is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Simon held senior positions in the State Department and at the National Security Council.
Israel’s response to the Hamas terror attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, has fundamentally altered the Middle East balance of power in a way not seen since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. It is time to acknowledge that Israel now looks like the region’s hegemon.
Enabled by the United States, its Arab treaty partners and key Gulf States, the Israelis have broken the Hamas-Hezbollah ring of opposition and revealed the vulnerability and weakness of their patron in Tehran while also degrading Iran’s air defenses and missile production. Israel has expanded its occupation of Syrian territory, taken control of areas of Lebanon just north of its border and undertaken aggressive tactics in the West Bank not seen since the second intifada, which ended 20 years ago.
Israel has benefited from the weakness of surrounding states, much as Iran did while it was, until very recently, vying to be the top dog. Lebanese leaders remain preoccupied by internal rivalries while Syria’s new government faces enormous economic, political and security challenges. Despite its oil, Iraq can’t meet the needs of a large population as it struggles to balance the demands of its two masters in Washington and Tehran.
The Trump administration, assuming it still considers peace between Israel and the Palestinians a top priority, will find it harder than ever to persuade Israel to convert its newfound military dominance into enduring political agreements with its Arab and Palestinian neighbors. There are no deals on the cheap here, to be scribbled on the back of cocktail napkins. President Trump and his team will need to put in the time and effort and press key Arab states and the Palestinians to do their part and, in an even tougher task, push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to make concessions. Mr. Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington suggests that Mr. Trump isn’t yet ready to try.
The Israeli leader and his far-right coalition are disinclined to strike deals, especially given that the Trump administration has imposed few constraints on Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon or Syria. Mr. Netanyahu is facing trial on various charges for which he can escape judgment only by remaining in office. He is not going to jeopardize his hold on power.
