July 4 Weather Forecast Shows Heat and Storms Across the US

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“Ideal” conditions are expected in the Northeast, but Florida and the Carolinas are warily eyeing a potential tropical system.

A person with long pigtails faces away from the camera. The person’s hair is tied back with stars-and-stripes ribbons, and the person is wearing a dark blue shirt with white stars on it, like an American flag.
Weather may affect some July 4 celebrations.Credit...Emily Elconin/Reuters

Nazaneen GhaffarJudson Jones

By Nazaneen Ghaffar and Judson Jones

Nazaneen Ghaffar is a reporter on The Times’s weather team. Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The New York Times.

Published July 2, 2025Updated July 3, 2025, 10:15 a.m. ET

As Independence Day draws near, weather conditions cross the United States are shaping up to be anything but uniform. From heat and severe storms to flash floods, the forecast is looking mixed.

Whether you’re planning to travel or enjoy outdoor festivities like fireworks, here’s what you can expect heading into the holiday weekend.

In the days before the holiday, the Northeast has contended with some unsettled weather because of a cold front moving through the region.

Thursday is no exception, with severe weather expected over most of New England through Pennsylvania, including New York City, Philadelphia and Newark. Damaging winds are anticipated to be the main threat.

However, once the front passes, drier weather is on the horizon. Bryan Jackson, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, said “ideal conditions” were expected for July 4 in the Northeast.

“It’s really sunny for Friday, Saturday and Sunday,” he said.

Temperatures are expected to rise by the end of the week, too.


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