Mamdani Maintains 13-Point Lead as Cuomo Gains Ground After Adams’s Exit

The race to lead New York City has tightened since Mayor Eric Adams exited the contest, but Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, maintains a 13-point lead a month before Election Day, according to a new poll released on Thursday.

The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, offered the first detailed snapshot since Mr. Adams’s decision to end his flagging campaign in late September.

It indicated that most of the mayor’s support transferred to former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, improving his standing from September, when the pollster found him trailing by 22 points in a four-way contest.

Overall, 46 percent of likely voters now say they plan to vote for Mr. Mamdani, compared with 33 percent for Mr. Cuomo, who is running on a third-party ballot line after losing the Democratic primary in June. About 15 percent of likely voters support Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee.

“The numbers changed,” said Mary Snow, the group’s assistant director. “But the contours of the race haven’t.”

The poll, conducted Oct. 3 through Oct. 7, offered Mr. Mamdani and Mr. Cuomo cause for both optimism and concern. It had a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

Mr. Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman, remains the clear front-runner heading into two general election debates and the race’s final weeks. He is the only candidate viewed favorably overall by likely voters, and his supporters are notably more enthusiastic than Mr. Cuomo’s.

Still, the Quinnipiac survey was the latest poll that found Mr. Mamdani, a democratic socialist, failing to clear 50 percent of the overall vote, and it registered little new support for him from a month earlier.

Mr. Cuomo’s campaign quickly portrayed the swing as a sign of momentum and hope it could be enough to persuade big-money donors that his cause is not hopeless.

But Mr. Cuomo’s image is underwater with New Yorkers, and more than half of likely voters said they did not find him to be ethical years after he was forced to resign as governor amid a sexual harassment scandal. (He has denied wrongdoing.)

Mr. Cuomo, 67, and his allies have argued that the race would get closer when Mr. Sliwa’s supporters realized he could not win, allowing Mr. Cuomo to further consolidate support as a centrist alternative to Mr. Mamdani. Enthusiasm among Mr. Sliwa’s supporters, however, increased compared with September, while excitement slightly decreased among those backing Mr. Cuomo.

Mr. Mamdani and Mr. Cuomo have presented voters with sharply divergent visions for the city. Mr. Mamdani is running on an economic platform promising to make all buses and child care free and freeze rents on about one million rent-stabilized units. He wants to hold the size of the Police Department steady, while shifting some of its functions to a new civilian-led department of community safety.

Mr. Cuomo has countered that the city should not be subsidizing services for the rich. He opposes a rent freeze, wants to target subsidies for food and transportation to low-income residents. He also wants to go on a hiring spree to expand the ranks of the police.

In the new Quinnipiac poll, more likely votes said Mr. Mamdani would do the best job lowering housing costs, managing the city’s public schools and keeping them and their families safe.

Mr. Cuomo had an edge on growing the city’s economy. Seventy-three percent of likely voters said he had “the right kind of experience” to be mayor compared with only 39 percent for Mr. Mamdani, a three-term assemblyman with a relatively thin résumé.

The two men were essentially tied when it comes to representing New York City’s interests against President Trump, who has denounced Mr. Mamdani as an extremist and threatened to curtail federal funding to the city if he is elected.

Voters appear to have conflicted views about how Mr. Mamdani, a sharp critic of Israel, is approaching the war in Gaza. More indicated that they identified with his views on the conflict between Israel and Hamas than with Mr. Cuomo’s strong support of Israel.

But more voters oppose than support Mr. Mamdani’s vow to try to arrest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on war crimes charges. Around 43 percent of likely voters oppose Mr. Mamdani’s pledge, while 38 percent support it.