Militant’s Death Would Be Blow to Hamas, but May Have Limited Long-Term Consequences

The assassination of Muhammad Sinwar, the influential Hamas leader whom Israel tried to kill in a recent strike, would be a major tactical success for Israel but its long-term significance is unclear. The group has survived for decades despite Israel’s systematic assassination of its leaders.

Mr. Sinwar, whose fate is still unknown, is considered one of Hamas’s leading military commanders in Gaza. He is the younger brother of Yahya Sinwar, an architect of Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel in October 2023, whom Israeli troops killed last year. Israeli and Middle Eastern officials have concluded that Mr. Sinwar is one of the biggest obstacles to a new cease-fire in Gaza: They say he is among the Hamas officials most opposed to relinquishing the group’s arsenal — an Israeli precondition for any long-term truce.

But though powerful, Mr. Sinwar is just one of several senior military leaders in Gaza, and far from the only Hamas leader opposed to concessions to Israel. His killing would undermine the group, analysts said, but might not change Hamas’s strategic outlook and operational abilities or soften Israel’s uncompromising approach to cease-fire negotiations.

“If confirmed, his death would definitely be another big blow to Hamas — many of their senior military and political leaders have been killed, and Hamas can’t replace all of them,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist from Gaza.