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Business|OPEC Plus Signals Cautious Approach to Oil Production
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/02/business/opec-plus-oil.html
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Eight members of the oil cartel agreed on Sunday to a small increase but said they would now pause in adding more oil, reflecting market concerns about an oversupply.
By Stanley Reed
Stanley Reed, who reported from London, has covered OPEC for two decades.
Nov. 2, 2025Updated 1:09 p.m. ET
A group of eight countries belonging to the oil cartel known as OPEC Plus said on Sunday that it would increase oil production by 137,000 barrels a day beginning in December, but signaled caution about its next steps in the face of concerns about oversupply.
The group, in a surprise, said that it would “pause” adding oil for the first three months of next year and that it would closely monitor market conditions and maintain “full flexibility” in deciding whether to continue pausing production increases or even resume cuts.
In a news release, the group attributed the temporary halt to “seasonality.” Indeed, demand for crude oil tends to drop in the first quarter as refineries reduce runs. “They don’t want to add barrels in a seasonally weak market,” said Amrita Sen, the director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, a research firm.
But perhaps more significant, the announcement seems to indicate that the group, which sells enormous volumes of oil to major importing countries like China and India, is picking up signs that there are risks of an oversupply next year.
“They do their own balances, and their balances are also showing builds” in the first quarter, Ms. Sen said.
Bachar El-Halabi, a senior energy markets analyst for Argus Media, a research firm, said that staying put “will definitely give them better visibility over market fundamentals.”
