Political Costs of Trump Tax Cuts, Medicaid and ‘Debt Slavery’

Andrew here. We’re getting down to the wire for President Trump’s big beautiful bill. Elon Musk called the bill “insane” over the weekend — yet big business seems to be behind it after a number of last-minute changes were made.

Meanwhile, some trade deals may be getting closer to done. And we’re focused on comments that Zohran Mamdani, the presumptive front-runner for New York City mayor, made over the weekend about billionaires (and his refusal to condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada”).

A crucial vote nears

Republicans are slogging toward a vote later on Monday on the Senate’s version of a major domestic policy bill that’s the linchpin of President Trump’s agenda. But the proposal’s ultimate fate appears cloudier than ever.

Among the obstacles: the Senate’s rule keeper has struck several provisions, which could torpedo crucial support by wavering lawmakers; a potential price tag that far exceeds the fiscal impact of the House’s bill; and the latest fulminations online by Elon Musk, Trump’s erstwhile ally.

The latest: Senate leadership delayed a marathon series of votes on amendments to the legislation until Monday. Republicans are forging ahead with an accounting gimmick that’s meant to get around the chamber’s longstanding rules and unilaterally declare that extending the 2017 tax cuts — estimated to cost about $3.8 trillion over a decade — would add nothing to the federal deficit.

But warning signs keep cropping up:

• Even as pressure from Trump on Senator Thom Tillis over his misgivings about potential cuts to Medicaid prompted the lawmaker’s retirement, the North Carolina Republican warned his colleagues that they were about to “make a mistake on health care and betray a promise.” Tillis’s comment underscores some lawmakers’ fears that the potential Medicaid cuts could cost Republicans at the polls.

• One of the latest rulings by the Senate parliamentarian struck a provision meant to benefit Alaska, to help win support from Senator Lisa Murkowski. While she voted to advance the bill out of committee, some Republicans worry that the loss of that sweetener could cost her support. The parliamentarian also rejected an effort to expand a Medicare drug price negotiation exemption for “orphan” drugs.

• The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office calculated that the Senate bill would add $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit, compared with a $2.4 trillion hit from the House’s version. That could erode support in the lower chamber — especially from the House Freedom Caucus — which must approve the Senate’s changes.

And Musk has weighed in again. Over the weekend, the billionaire — whose public denunciations of the legislation opened a rift between him and Trump — called the Senate proposal “political suicide” for Republicans and said it would “destroy millions of jobs in America.” He added that it would put the country “in the fast lane to debt slavery.”