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The Russian leader is convinced that Moscow’s battlefield superiority is growing, and that Ukraine’s defenses may collapse in the coming months, according to people close to the Kremlin.
July 9, 2025, 9:39 a.m. ET
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is brushing aside President Trump’s professed disappointment in him and is pushing ahead in Ukraine with renewed intensity, having already priced in the possibility of new U.S. pressure, analysts and people close to the Kremlin said.
The Russian leader is convinced that Russia’s battlefield superiority is growing, and that Ukraine’s defenses may collapse in the coming months, according to two people close to the Kremlin, who insisted on anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive diplomacy. Given Russia’s ongoing offensive, they say, Mr. Putin views it as out of the question to halt the fighting now without extensive concessions by Ukraine.
“He will not sacrifice his goals in Ukraine for the sake of improving relations with Trump,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said.
Mr. Putin’s recalcitrance highlights a stark reversal from some expectations earlier this year, when Mr. Trump came into office and aggressively pursued a rapprochement with Moscow, having pledged on the campaign trail to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Mr. Trump’s friendly approach to the Kremlin and an Oval Office shouting match with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine seemed to offer a rare opening for Mr. Putin.
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Mr. Trump’s clear sympathy for the Russian leader, many Russians hoped, could yield sanctions relief, Western investment, arms-control deals and a favorable geopolitical realignment in Europe. All Mr. Putin needed to do, it seemed, was accept a Ukraine cease-fire that would have allowed Russia to keep the territory it had already captured.
