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The most important factors may be far from the battlefield.

July 19, 2025, 5:00 a.m. ET
Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine is gaining ground as its forces attack on multiple fronts. In June, the country’s numerical advantages in troops and air power produced its biggest monthly gains in territory since the beginning of the year.
Russia’s aims are not simply territorial. Analysts say it wants to methodically destroy the Ukrainian military, as Moscow slowly advances its own troops. The biggest challenge for Moscow may be far from the front lines, as the Russian economy can no longer keep pace with escalating military spending.
For Ukraine, its ability to sustain the war may also be decided far away, as the Trump administration sends mixed signals about its desire and ability to continue arming Kyiv’s forces. Last week, President Trump said that NATO countries would buy weapons from the United States to give to Ukraine.
The ground war
Over the past two months, Russian units have been able to step up their attacks on multiple fronts, from Ukraine’s Sumy region in the north to the steppes of Zaporizhzhia in the south.
Russia now controls more than two-thirds of Ukraine’s Donetsk region — the main theater of the ground war. Russian forces have carved out a 10-mile-deep pocket around the Ukrainian troops defending the crucial city of Kostiantynivka, partly surrounding them from the east, south and west.
A map of eastern Ukraine highlighting the city of Kostyantynivka. Avdiivka, Bakhmut and Kramatorsk are also shown.
25 miles
UKRAINE
Ukraine
Kramatorsk
Druzhkivka
Bakhmut
AREA UNDER
RUSSIAN CONTROL
Kostiantynivka
Avdiivka
Donetsk
Russia