The Incomprehensible March Toward Regime Change in Venezuela

Opinion|The Incomprehensible March Toward Regime Change in Venezuela

On Monday, the United States formally designated President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and his allies in government as members of a foreign terrorist organization called Cartel de los Soles, a group that doesn’t exist.

“There’s no such thing as the cartel,” Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told me by phone from Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, on Monday. Cartel de los Soles, or Cartel of the Suns, is a pejorative Venezuelan term for corrupt figures in the armed forces who take money from drug traffickers; the name is a reference to the sun insignia on their uniforms. It was coined over 30 years ago, Gunson said, as journalistic shorthand, “and it hung around as a kind of jokey label.” It’s as if Donald Trump classified the “deep state” as a criminal gang.

Declaring this fake cartel a terrorist organization could have real-world consequences. “I think it’s intended to send the message to Maduro that you are now considered a terrorist, and therefore, you might suffer the same fate as Osama bin Laden,” said Gunson. It’s at once a threat and a rationale for a possible regime change operation, a military adventure that would be utterly preposterous but also looks increasingly likely.

No one knows if we’re about to start bombing Venezuela, but the administration’s demagogy about the Cartel de los Soles is just one of many alarming signs. For months now, the United States has been committing extrajudicial killings of suspected drug runners, many from Venezuela, in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean. As The New York Times reported, the administration is justifying these strikes by claiming that America is in a state of armed conflict with drug cartels. Now the administration seems ready to expand this armed conflict into Venezuela.

The Navy’s largest aircraft carrier recently arrived in the region, part of the biggest military buildup in the Caribbean since the Cuban missile crisis. Last week, The Times reported, Trump authorized plans for covert C.I.A. action in Venezuela. Airlines are canceling flights because of a Federal Aviation Administration warning of a “worsening security situation.”

Yet the United States doesn’t feel at all like a country marching into war. Venezuela barely registers in our public discussions. In a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, only one in five Americans reported having heard or read a lot about the military buildup in the area. The administration’s cursory explanations for possible military action make the case for the Iraq war look rigorous. It’s as if the White House is so heedless of public opinion that it doesn’t even feel the need to mount a proper propaganda campaign.