The Middle East Cease-Fire Is in Trump’s Hands

Before examining the pitfalls and weaknesses of the Gaza cease-fire, let us welcome even the least of what it may achieve. Fifteen months after the horrendous Hamas attack on Israel and the launch of Israel’s retaliatory invasion, Gaza is a moonscape, most of its 2 million inhabitants homeless, hungry and in despair, and those hostages who are still alive, in the cruel hands of Hamas terrorists, have been torn from their loved ones simply too long. Even the release of only some of the hostages, and even a few weeks of unrestricted humanitarian assistance into Gaza, is good news.

The deal is a tribute to the many months of relentless efforts by the Biden administration and mediators from Egypt and Qatar, and an 11th-hour push from Donald Trump. Debates have already erupted over who deserves credit for finally achieving a cease-fire and who is to blame for delaying it so long, but the incontrovertible fact is that the United States still holds powerful sway over events in the Middle East — including the fate of this agreement, which will require huge effort.

The agreement calls for three phases, of which only the first is described in detail. The initial stage is to last six weeks, during which 33 hostages — women, men over 50, the sick and the wounded — and several hundred Palestinian prisoners are to be exchanged. Israel is to allow a surge of aid into the enclave, and Israeli troops are to start withdrawing from population centers. Negotiations on the second, more difficult phase are to begin while the first is being carried out, and are supposed to cover the release of all remaining living captives held by Hamas and more Palestinians held by Israel, and Israel’s “complete withdrawal.” Details of the third phase are unclear, but they presumably will include return of the remaining deceased hostages and prisoners and a reconstruction plan for Gaza. The critical question of who will administer Gaza after the cease-fire also remains unsettled.

That leaves plenty of room for either side to back out, as they have again and again in the negotiations. Phased plans have a dismal record in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle because they are conditioned on each side fulfilling the terms of the current phase, effectively giving zealots on both sides ample opportunity to derail the process, as the fates of Oslo, Oslo II, Hebron, Wye River and so many other “peace processes” bear witness.

Neither the Israeli far right nor Hamas is keen on the deal. For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing followers, the fact that Hamas has not been eradicated is insufferable. And some extreme nationalists — including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who resigned as national security minister on Sunday over the deal — have not abandoned their ambition to build on Israeli military successes against Hamas and Hezbollah to restore Jewish settlements to Gaza and to annex West Bank territories. Hamas, which rejoiced in the atrocities it committed in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and effectively invited the destruction of the territory it purports to lead, will try to use the freeing of large numbers of prisoners to enhance its standing among Palestinians and balk at any deal that further weakens its hold on Gaza.

That puts considerable responsibility on the Trump administration to keep the process on track. President Trump has been widely and properly credited for pushing Mr. Netanyahu into accepting the cease-fire, first by warning in early January that “All hell will break out” if hostages were not released by the time he entered office and then by sending his old friend and new Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, to personally lean on Mr. Netanyahu. This enabled the prime minister to tell his right-wing cohort that he had no choice, since the president they so ardently hoped for was not with them on this.