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In one worst-case scenario, New Orleans could receive up to 10 inches of rain by the end of the weekend.
Five-day precipitation forecast
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Notes: Values are shown only for the contiguous United States and are in inches of water or the equivalent amount of melted snow and ice. By Zach Levitt, Bea Malsky and Martín González Gómez
By Amy Graff
Amy Graff is a reporter on The Times’s weather team.
July 15, 2025Updated 3:52 p.m. ET
A tropical disturbance and the heavy rain moving along with it will bring a risk of flash flooding to Florida and the central Gulf Coast in the coming days, particularly in southern Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge.
Key Things to Know
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said there was a 40 percent chance the system could intensify into a tropical depression on Wednesday, before pushing into southern Louisiana on Thursday and then likely weakening.
Heavy rain could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through Wednesday. Coastal areas of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana could also experience flooding beginning on Wednesday and continuing through the weekend.
Multiple flood watches were in place along the Gulf Coast.
A tropical disturbance is a loose cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms. It’s often the first stage in a tropical storm, but this system off the coast of Florida is not expected to become a named storm.
The disturbance was drifting westward across the central portion of the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday, bringing heavy rain in an area between Orlando and Jacksonville. A series of flood watches were in effect across Central Florida, with most locations predicted to record between two and four inches of rain.
North Florida and the Panhandle are expected to experience heavy rain on Tuesday into Wednesday as the disturbance moves west into the northeast Gulf.
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As the disturbance moves over the water on Wednesday, it is likely to organize into a tropical depression, pushing across the Gulf and bringing a chance for heavy rain to coastal areas of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.
On Thursday, the system is expected to veer north, pushing inland into southern Louisiana.
New Orleans is likely to receive three to six inches of rain from Wednesday through Sunday, but it could measure up to 10 inches of rain in the worst-case scenario, according to the Weather Service.
Exactly how much rain falls will depend on the path of the disturbance. New Orleans will see more rain if it tracks further east. If it moves west, Baton Rouge could see more rain, but so could the Atchafalaya Basin, a swamp area where flooding is less of a concern.
“The bulk of the rainfall will be on Thursday and Friday, lingering into Saturday, potentially even Sunday,” said Megan Williams, a meteorologist at the Weather Service office serving the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas.
The Atlantic hurricane season got off to a slow start. But forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they expect it to be an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms by the time the it ends in November. A typical season has an average of 14 named storms.
Amy Graff is a Times reporter covering weather, wildfires and earthquakes.
