Trump’s Early Stumbles

The biggest impediment to a successful second term for President Trump may be Trump himself.

For all the early energy of his presidency — the flurry of executive orders, confirmations and firings — Trump has looked less disciplined this week than he did in the initial days after returning to office. The last few days have instead conjured the chaos of his first term, when his grand pronouncements often failed to change government policy.

The first part of this week was dominated by Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but he postponed them in exchange for the countries’ promise to do things they were largely already doing. On Tuesday, Trump announced a plan for the U.S. to take over Gaza that even American allies like Saudi Arabia dismissed as unworkable. The reaction was so bad that White House aides walked back parts of the plan yesterday.

Neither of these policy announcements seems likely to lead to tangible accomplishments. And both have the potential to make him look weak.

It’s true that over-the-top pronouncements can have ancillary benefits for Trump. Steve Bannon, his former adviser, talks frequently about the value of “flooding the zone” so that Trump’s political opponents can’t focus energy on stopping any one of his changes. Trump’s promise of turning Gaza into “the Riviera of the Middle East” could keep Democrats from mobilizing opposition to, say, Elon Musk’s campaign against foreign aid.

But there are also costs for Trump. He and his allies have ambitious goals for remaking federal policy. They want to cut taxes, shrink the government, expand manufacturing, deport undocumented immigrants, restrict immigration, end “wokeism,” contain China, weaken Iran, strengthen Israel and Saudi Arabia and pull back from Europe. High-profile policies that fall flat don’t get Trump’s team closer to these goals.

A finite asset

The attention and resources of the Trump administration are limited, too. Each long-shot policy that the administration pursues has an opportunity cost. Trump’s first term included relatively few policy accomplishments (his tax cut being a notable exception) because he spent so much time on ideas that went nowhere. Remember “infrastructure week,” which never led to an actual law? Or the nonexistent peace deal with North Korea? Or the Covid treatment ideas with no medical benefits?