4 hours ago
1
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load.
If Republicans pass their tax and spending megabill, the record will arrive even sooner — putting America’s debt at more than 113 percent of the size of its entire economy.
May 20, 2025, 5:37 p.m. ET
U.S. Federal Debt as a Share of the Economy Since 1790
Sources: Congressional Budget Office (historical federal debt held by the public); Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (projections under the House bill if temporary provisions are made permanent, and under the bill as written)
The New York Times
The United States hit its record debt level at the end of 1945, after a world war and the Great Depression.
That record, in which the debt was briefly larger than the size of the entire economy, is almost certain to be broken in the next several years. Estimates from the Congressional Budget Office published in January showed that the country was on track to overtake it in 2032 — and that was before the Republicans’ large tax and spending bill was taken into account.
Under the G.O.P. megabill being considered in the House, budget experts now say, the U.S. debt would blow past the record even sooner and climb significantly higher in coming decades.
America has had periods of high debt before, but they have tended to occur during wars, recessions or other major shocks. Generally, federal deficits have been lower during periods of low unemployment. Today, there is no war or recession to easily explain the rapidly increasing pace of borrowing.
Because the government has been spending more than it collects in taxes over the past two decades, the debt has been growing. Without any changes to existing law, the Congressional Budget Office predicts the debt will rise to about 117 percent of the economy’s size by 2034, higher than the 1945 record.
The Republicans’ bill would widen the gap further by extending and expanding tax cuts and increasing military spending, partly offset by spending cuts in other areas. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that favors debt reduction, estimates that the nation’s debt could be as high as 129 percent of the economy by 2034 under those plans.
