What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s September Meeting

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The U.S. central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time this year, despite the economy sending mixed signals.

Jerome H. Powell wearing glasses in front of a microphone.
Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve.Credit...Caroline Gutman for The New York Times

Colby Smith

Sept. 17, 2025, 5:04 a.m. ET

After a long pause, the Federal Reserve is finally ready to make a move. On Wednesday, policymakers are expected to vote to lower interest rates a quarter of a percentage point, the first cut since December.

The decision is a turning point for the central bank, whose officials have been locked in an intense debate about the right time to provide some relief to borrowers when the economy has been sending mixed signals.

Inflation picked back up over the summer and appears poised to continue accelerating this year as a result of President Trump’s tariffs. The labor market, while still solid, has started to flash more warning signs.

The Fed is having to balance these competing risks while contending with a relentless pressure campaign from Mr. Trump and his allies to slash borrowing costs. These dynamics have made for a highly unusual Fed meeting. Minutes before the Fed’s two-day gathering began on Tuesday, Stephen Miran, Mr. Trump’s pick to join the Fed, was sworn in. Another governor, Lisa Cook, spent the day before the meeting awaiting a ruling from a federal appeals court that would determine whether she could attend this week’s meeting. The court ruled in her favor.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release a new policy statement alongside its rate decision at 2 p.m. in Washington. It will also release new projections compiling officials’ views on interest rates and the economic outlook. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m.

Here is what to watch for:

In July, the last time the Fed met to set interest rates, two members of its powerful Board of Governors voted against the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Instead, Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller voted for a quarter-point cut. That was the first time since 1993 that two officials of their stature officially dissented.


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