Xi Is Making the World Pay for China’s Economic Blunders

2 months ago 24

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Guest Essay

Feb. 18, 2025, 1:00 a.m. ET

Shipping containers stacked up in a large port.
Credit...Kaya & Blank for The New York Times

By Brad Setser

Mr. Setser is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of the Follow the Money blog.

President Trump’s readiness to use coercive tariffs presents a profound threat to the postwar economic and political order, introducing an unpredictability to global commerce that makes it difficult for trade partners to know how to react — and next to impossible for businesses to plan.

But he is not the only danger the world economy faces and may not even be the biggest. That may be President Xi Jinping of China, whose more strategic and calibrated industrial and economic policies are fundamentally distorting and harming global trade.

Trade usually refers to the combination of imports and exports. But Mr. Xi has upended that idea, radically changing China’s trade interaction with the rest of the world, at least when it comes to manufactured goods. Over the past six years, China’s imports of such goods increased by an average of only $15 billion a year, essentially no change at all when inflation is taken into account. Its manufactured exports, on the other hand, have grown more than 10 times as fast, by over $150 billion a year. When it comes to manufactured goods, trade with China is virtually a one-way street.

China now dominates global manufacturing, and its trade surplus dwarfs the biggest run by Germany and Japan during their eras of postwar export supremacy. Countries around the world get cheap Chinese products, but they can’t sell nearly as many of their own to China. Their export sectors are hurting — see Germany — and not hiring.

China’s growing trade surplus in manufactured goods

The value of China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods now dwarfs that of the export champions of the 1990s.

Sources: Brad Setser, Council on Foreign Relations; Volkmar Baur

Note: Data for China is available beginning in 1994. Data for Germany and Japan is available through 2023.

Why is Mr. Xi doing this? To make up for the Chinese government’s mismanagement of its domestic economy.


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