As Both Sides Remain Dug in, What Can Break the Government Shutdown Impasse?

Senate Republicans were confident that the call on Monday from the largest federal employees union for an end to the government shutdown would finally nudge labor-allied Senate Democrats to move toward resolving the stalemate entering its fifth week.

Democrats were instead mostly unmoved.

Their bet was that news on Wednesday of soaring health care premiums because of expiring Obamacare tax credits might finally persuade Republicans to negotiate on extending the subsidies. That didn’t pan out either; G.O.P. leaders have so far refused — at least until the government reopens.

Now the question is: What, if anything, can break the impasse that has led to federal workers being idled and force the warring parties to a solution? Several major inflection points are approaching, including the Nov. 1 start of Obamacare open enrollment, an imminent suspension of federal nutrition benefits for millions of struggling Americans and closely watched off-year elections next Tuesday that could be a gauge of political momentum.

Both parties are eyeing these developments as moments that could create sufficient political anxiety to shake the status quo and encourage one side or both to relent.

“There is so much — so much — that is coming at us like a freight train,” said Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska.

For now, both sides remain dug in, and don’t see the calendar as providing much of an impetus for change.

“I just think people know what is going on,” said Senator Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut. “Trump is in Asia not negotiating. The Republicans won’t show up, and the government could open pretty quickly if they were serious about a negotiation. Their take-it-or-leave-it approach is totally unprecedented.”

An appeal this week from the head of the American Federation of Government Employees, who warned of the hardships being imposed on his membership and urged senators to pass a short-term spending measure, prompted some optimism among Republicans that a few more Democrats would join them in approving the bill.

“Most civil servants did not receive a paycheck last week,” Everett B. Kelley, the national president of the union, wrote in a letter to senators. “Unless things change, more federal workers will wake up this Friday to bank balances that have not been replenished and financial worries that have grown heavier.”

Despite some expressions of sympathy, Democrats held firm in yet another vote on Tuesday blocking the stopgap legislation, reiterating their calls for President Trump and Republicans to start negotiations over an extension of the Obamacare subsidies that expire at the end of the year. Republicans reiterated that they were willing to talk, but only after Democrats vote to reopen the government.

“We Democrats want to do and have always said we can do both,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the minority leader. “We can provide all the help — provide pay and furlough and back pay for federal workers and fix the health care crisis. And all they have to do is sit down and negotiate with us, and both can happen.”

Democrats say the administration is breaking with precedent by not diverting emergency funding to the nutrition programs, and argue that it is the White House that will be inflicting the pain as way to intensify pressure on Democrats. They intend to try to force Senate votes to extend the program and put Republicans, whose constituents also rely on food aid, in a tough spot.

Democrats, in turn, are counting on the Nov. 1 opening of enrollment for Obamacare coverage to cause sticker shock among Republican voters who could be seeing the true impact of not extending the tax credits, motivating them to demand that their senators get to the negotiating table.

But when higher prices became public in a dozen states earlier this month, Republicans did not budge. On Wednesday, when a government website published a preview showing premium increases across the country, there was little sign that their position had changed.

“What we know is that four million Americans will look at the price hike and say, ‘It’s too much, and I will go without health care,’” Senator Tammy Baldwin, Democrat of Wisconsin, said. “This is 100 percent avoidable, but my Republican colleagues are simply refusing to act.”

Senator John Thune, Republican of South Dakota and the majority leader, has pulled back from his party’s plan to allow votes on specific bills to pay federal workers and extend nutrition benefits, fearing that doing so would allow Democrats to go on the record in support and get political cover for refusing to end the shutdown.

Members of both parties are also watching off-year elections next Tuesday, particularly statewide contests in Virginia and New Jersey, for signs of deep-seated opposition to Mr. Trump and Republican policies, or indications that Democrats overplayed their hand. The results will be sharply analyzed and could stir Congress to act.

But some lawmakers doubted the voting would have much impact.

“I don’t expect to win those states because I never expect to win those states,” said Senator Kevin Cramer, Republican of North Dakota. “I think it is funny that they’ve become so relevant in the political discourse.”

Privately, some Senate Democrats acknowledge that there is some “churn” and division among their members about how to proceed. Members of the Appropriations Committee have continued talks about how to break some individual spending bills free for votes as the consequences of the shutdown spread.

“The carnage is building up,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina. “I think next week we will have a breakthrough.”

That pressure is likely to only increase as Thanksgiving, a major travel holiday, nears and federal employees, including air traffic controllers, continue to go without pay. Senators themselves would also like to take advantage of the holiday and to not have to be concerned about the optics of vacating Washington with the shutdown continuing.

Mr. Kelley, the union official, urged lawmakers to take the approaching holiday season into account as they maneuvered over federal spending.

“With less than a month before Thanksgiving, no federal worker should have to turn to a food pantry to help prepare the family table,” he wrote.