Elections Across the U.S. Will Test Democrats’ Momentum Ahead of 2026 Midterms

After more than nine months of President Trump using the full force of the federal government to impose his will on the nation, elections across the country on Tuesday will offer the Democratic Party its biggest chance yet to assert its viability as a serious opposition party.

No federal contests that could provide a meaningful check on Mr. Trump’s powers in Washington will be decided. But races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia headline an Election Day that will provide a critical update on the state of the Democrats’ rebuilding project and a preview of the fault lines in the 2026 midterm elections.

The 2025 races have been buffeted by many of the same forces that shaped the 2024 race, led by an affordability crisis that is pinching voters in cities, suburbs and rural areas alike. Unlike in the 2024 election, it is now Mr. Trump and his ambitious regime of tariffs that are seen as driving the economy.

Ken Martin, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, predicted in an interview that victories on Tuesday would help his party head into 2026 with “a head full of steam.”

“Where there were once strong headwinds against the Democratic Party, there now seems to be wind at our back and momentum for sure,” Mr. Martin said. He insisted, “it’s not just an anti-Trump wave that we’re seeing,” but a powerful chord that Democrats have struck with their message on economics and affordability.

Of course, its helps Democrats that the biggest contests are being held in states that Mr. Trump lost. The flip side is that any defeats in those states could be especially deflating.

Beyond the governors’ races, mayoral contests in New York, Minneapolis and Seattle will highlight generational and ideological divides in the Democratic Party. Supreme Court elections in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, offer a check on the main parties’ strength. Races farther down the ticket — state legislative showdowns in Mississippi, a close attorney general contest in Virginia, two seats on Georgia’s public service commission, even a City Council recall in Mesa, Ariz. — will offer glimpses at the state of both parties in a time of division and rancor.

In New York City, the rise of 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist who polls show is favored to win the mayor’s race, has demonstrated the left’s appetite to inject fresh faces and new ideas into the fight. Mr. Mamdani faces a November rematch with former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent after Mr. Mamdani’s victory in the Democratic primary.

Republicans hold a three-seat majority in the House headed into the 2026 midterm elections, magnifying the importance of each seat carved off the battleground landscape by partisan mapmakers.

Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, the architect of the state’s proposed new maps, held a bullish final rally in Los Angeles on Saturday, predicting Tuesday would be the beginning of a Democratic comeback.

“What this is all about is Democrats getting back on our toes — not our heels — getting our mojo back,” Mr. Newsom said at the event, where former Vice President Kamala Harris also appeared. “I cannot wait for Nov. 5, Nov. 6 and all the punditry.”

The body language from top Republicans was far less optimistic. Mr. Trump himself has done little campaigning, including in the final weekend. He has held no big rallies, instead speaking at recent telephone rallies aimed at New Jersey and Virginia voters.

Mr. Trump’s Justice Department has announced plans to send officials to “monitor polling sites” in six California and New Jersey counties, a tactic that Mr. Newsom has called an effort at voter intimidation and suppression — and even a pretext to later make false claims of fraud.

The elections are also unfolding against the unusual backdrop of the federal government shutdown, which will rank as the longest in American history by the time the polls close on Tuesday. Mr. Trump and congressional Democrats have barely engaged in negotiations, each side hoping a protracted fight will inflict more damage to the other.

The fall’s most contested and costly race — with more than $200 million in advertising — is for New Jersey’s governorship. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee, is making his third run in a row for the seat, after narrowly losing four years ago to Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a Democrat. He is urging voters to “elect a Jersey guy” and pressing to replicate Mr. Trump’s strong showing in the state’s Black and Latino communities.

Two historical and countervailing trends are converging in New Jersey.

If Ms. Sherrill were to win, it would be the first time the state’s voters have elected governors from the same party for three consecutive terms since the 1960s. At the same time, the state has often selected a new governor who counterbalances the party that occupies the White House, including both Mr. Murphy during Mr. Trump’s first term and Gov. Chris Christie during the first year of Barack Obama’s presidency.

The other top race is in Virginia, where Abigail Spanberger, the former congresswoman and C.I.A. case officer, is favored to win the governor’s mansion and replace the outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican.

The Republican nominee, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, has never found her footing in a state that has been disproportionately affected both by the government shutdown and the Trump administration’s shedding of federal jobs. Though Mr. Trump never endorsed Ms. Earle-Sears, the Spanberger campaign has barraged the airwaves with ads tying her to the president.

Ms. Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill, who were roommates when serving in Congress together, are both moderate Democrats who were first elected in the Democratic wave of 2018, helping the party flip control of the House in Mr. Trump’s first term. Some party strategists see their candidacies — even if they have not inspired the crowds and excitement of Mr. Mamdani’s — as templates for how to take the House again in 2026.

But Joe Gruters, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, downplayed the significance of the results even if Democrats swept the governors’ races on Tuesday.

“I don’t think it has any indication whatsoever on the 2026 midterm because these are both heavily blue states,” Mr. Gruters said in an interview, praising Mr. Ciattarelli’s campaign in particular. “I think the fact that we’re competitive and are running close campaigns is an indication that we’re better off — these are tough states for Republicans.”

The entire Virginia House of Delegates is also up for election this year, with the possibility that Ms. Spanberger won’t just win the governor’s mansion but establish full Democratic control in the state.

Virginia’s most intense contest has proved to be the race for attorney general between the incumbent, Jason Miyares, and the Democratic nominee, Jay Jones. The Jones campaign has been consumed by the disclosure of old private text messages in which the candidate wished violence on his political enemies. Mr. Jones has apologized, but the scandal has spilled into the governor’s race, dominating Ms. Earle-Sears’s recent advertising.

The race is expected to test the boundaries of ticket-splitting in an era when it has become increasingly rare. Mr. Miyares is expected to depend on winning over Spanberger voters to score re-election.

Throughout 2025, Democrats have celebrated a string of either victories or better-than-expected performances in races in heavily Republican districts. But those were in obscure special elections where extremely few voters turn out. The races on Tuesday offer the party a chance to prove its competitiveness on a bigger canvas.

The outcomes of low-turnout elections held in so-called off years are far from predictive. Just two years ago, Democrats scored a slate of big victories — the Kentucky governorship, an abortion-rights measure in Ohio, control of the Virginia Legislature — only to lose the White House and Senate in 2024.

Predictive or not, any party would far prefer victory over defeat.

“A win to win, whether it’s by one vote or 10 points or 20 points,” Mr. Martin said.

One overlooked but potentially consequential set of races is the retention elections for the State Supreme Court in Pennsylvania, where three Democratic justices must win approval to keep their seats — and thus maintain the party’s majority on the court in the nation’s premier battleground through the next presidential election.

Eugene DePasquale, who became chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party this year, said that success in the judicial contests could help lift the party’s spirits after Democrats suffered serious defeats there in 2024.

“Momentum matters,” Mr. DePasquale said in an interview. “We just have to start winning.”