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news analysis
The framework agreement will likely not do much for economic growth on either side. But it avoids new fissures on other foreign policy issues, particularly the war in Ukraine.
July 28, 2025, 4:06 a.m. ET
Survive and advance.
That phrase, favored by sports teams in big tournaments, sums up Europe’s approach to the trade negotiations it just wrapped with the Trump administration.
For Europe, surviving in the first year of President Trump’s second term means reaching an agreement on a trade deal that almost certainly won’t help the continental economy — but isn’t as bad as it could have been.
Advancing means keeping Mr. Trump engaged in the foreign policy issues that have preoccupied many European leaders more this summer than their own domestic economic struggles. Those issues include the fate of the Iranian nuclear program, the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Gaza and, most important, Ukraine’s ongoing war against Russia’s invasion.
The trade deal is centered on a tariff of 15 percent on most goods imposed by the United States on imports from the European Union. It reflects a sort of risk aversion from leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission; Friedrich Merz, the chancellor of Germany; and Emmanuel Macron, the president of France.
Those leaders were not willing to risk escalating a trade war that could have hurt European companies more than Mr. Trump’s tariffs already have. And they were not willing to risk deepening a diplomatic rift with the United States, the country Europeans have repeatedly cast as a crucial peace broker.
“It will bring stability,” Ms. von der Leyen said at a news conference with Mr. Trump in Scotland on Sunday. “It will bring predictability. That’s very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.”
