How China’s Rare Earth Chokehold Could Strangle Europe’s Military Buildup

European governments are racing to rearm their militaries as they face up to a more aggressive Russia and an increasingly isolationist America. But that push must overcome a formidable roadblock in the shape of China’s restrictions on critical minerals.

China dominates the market for rare earth metals and permanent magnets, which are used in the production of missiles, jets, drones and a vast array of military hardware. Beijing has wielded this leverage in its trade wars with Washington and Brussels, tightening or loosening export controls on rare earths in negotiations over tariffs and other trade barriers.

The drama has spurred a flurry of action in Europe, with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the E.U.’s executive arm, urging the bloc to “strive for its independence” on the critical minerals. But in the meantime, European trade officials have been frantically engaging with their Chinese counterparts to try to secure the bloc’s supply.

On Wednesday, ambassadors from across the 27 E.U. nations were told that China appeared to be willing to negotiate so-called general licenses to streamline rare earth exports to Europe. But there was no guarantee that such a solution would come quickly — or last for long. The bloc is focused on finding alternative supply options, said two diplomats briefed on the discussions, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

In the short term, the goal in the negotiations is to “provide more certainty to European industry,” said Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission. “Engagement continues.”

Yet the twists and turns have made it clear to European leaders just how much their military buildup hinges on an increasingly unreliable relationship with China.