In Fight for Syria, a Battle for Domination of the Middle East

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News analysis

In a region “already on fire,” analysts say, rebels’ advance toward Damascus is a barometer of the shifting power dynamics that also affect nations like Iran, Turkey, Russia and the United States.

People on the street greet men dressed in camouflage and carrying guns as they ride rust-colored vehicles near palm trees and an ornate cream building.

Dec. 7, 2024, 5:02 a.m. ET

As armed rebels have advanced at lightning speed in recent days from the north of Syria toward the capital, Damascus, footage online showed statues of the Assad dynasty — which has kept the country in its authoritarian grip for over 50 years — crashing to the ground.

But as the figures of President Bashar al-Assad’s deceased father and brother fell to cries of “God is Great!” the question looming over the astonishingly rapid resurrection of the torpid civil war into a five-alarm fire is whether the rebels might topple the president himself.

The commander of the rebel alliance, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who depicts himself as a reformed zealot from Al Qaeda, has bluntly made that point.

“Our goal is to liberate Syria from this oppressive regime,” he said in a video interview with The New York Times.

Whether the rebels succeed or not, experts believe that an expected brutal fight to control Damascus, and by extension Syria, would constitute the most important confrontation yet in the struggle to remake the region, one ignited on Oct. 7, 2023, with the Hamas-led attack on Israel.

The main regional players — Israel, Iran and Turkey — all have a stake in the outcome, which means that the ripples will affect not just the Middle East, but also global powers like the United States and Russia.