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U.S.|Is the California Dream a Mirage?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/11/us/california-turmoil-resilience.html
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The state is confronting what officials say is an unprecedented confluence of forces that will test its long record of enduring catastrophes, natural and otherwise.
Adam Nagourney has covered California politics, government and culture for more than a decade.
May 11, 2025Updated 3:07 p.m. ET
California eclipsed Japan in 2024 to become the fourth-largest economy in the world. Gov. Gavin Newsom announced earlier this month that the state’s population increased for the second year in a row. Tourism has hit record levels, as Los Angeles prepares to step onto the world stage as the host of the 2028 Summer Olympics.
But for all of that, there are rising signs that California is entering one of the most difficult periods in its history. The state is confronting what many leaders and officials say is an unprecedented confluence of forces — economic, political, social, environmental — that’s about to test its long record of resilience in the face of catastrophe, natural and otherwise.
Those population figures may prove to be a mirage. Analysts say the state’s population could well decline because of the wildfires that wiped out more than 6,000 homes in Los Angeles in January and because of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. Many young people are moving to other states to escape a housing shortage, leaving behind an aging population in a state that has long been a symbol of youth and energy.
Los Angeles, an economic engine for the state, is grappling with a $1 billion budget shortfall even before it confronts the challenge of rebuilding from the fires and the potential economic drain of preparing for the Olympics. Like San Francisco, it is struggling with an epidemic of homelessness on its sidewalks and downtown business districts that have been hollowed out by the Covid pandemic.
And at a time when the state is more vulnerable and more desperate for federal assistance after the fires, it seems unlikely California can look to Washington for help. President Trump has been far more antagonistic toward the state than he was in his first term.
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