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Experts at NOAA updated their prediction for the Atlantic on Thursday. Forecasters say there could be up to nine hurricanes before the end of November.
By Judson Jones
Judson Jones is a reporter and meteorologist at The Times.
Aug. 7, 2025, 12:34 p.m. ET
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far, with just four storms becoming strong enough to merit names, and none strong enough to be hurricanes. But that may be about to change.
Experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an update on Thursday to their seasonal hurricane forecast, with a very slight adjustment down from their initial estimates in May. They said that the forecast remains on track for an above-average season, and that they still expect to see between five and nine hurricanes before the season ends on Nov. 30.
“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA.
The announcement comes as the weather pattern suddenly indicates an increase in storm activity across the Atlantic. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, warned that “over the next two weeks, we could be entering a very active period.”
NOAA’s new forecast predicts as many as 18 named storms for the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. That’s just one fewer than the agency predicted before the season started. A storm gets a name when wind speeds reach 39 miles per hour, and it becomes a Category 1 hurricane if those winds reach 74 m.p.h.
The number of named storms includes the four tropical storms that have already formed in the Atlantic this season. Four storms had formed by this time last year, too, before Ernesto, the fifth named storm of 2024, formed on Aug. 12.
