Trump Just Bet the Farm

Opinion|Trump Just Bet the Farm

Donald Trump is not known for doing his homework — he’s more of a go-with-my-gut kind of guy. What I find most terrifying about what Trump is doing today is that he seems to be largely relying on his gut to bet that he can radically overturn how America’s institutions have operated and the way the nation relates to both its allies and enemies — and get it all right. As in, America will become stronger and more prosperous, while the rest of the world will just adjust. Next question.

Well, what are the odds that Trump can get all of these complex issues right — based on trusting his gut — when on the same day that he was announcing his huge tariff increases on imports from the world over, he invited into the Oval Office Laura Loomer, a conspiracy theorist who believes that Sept. 11 was an “inside” job. She was there, my Times colleagues reported, to lecture Trump about how disloyal key members of the National Security Council staff were. Trump subsequently fired at least six of them. (No wonder so many Chinese asked me in Beijing last week if we were having a Mao-like “cultural revolution.” More on that later.)

Yes, what are the odds that such a president, seemingly ready to act on foreign policy on the advice of a conspiracy theorist, got all this trade theory right? I’d say they’re long.

What is it that Trump, with his grievance-filled gut, doesn’t understand? The time we live in today, though far from perfect or equal, is nevertheless widely viewed by historians as one of the most relatively peaceful and prosperous in history. We are benefiting from this pacific era in large part because of a tightening web of globalization and trade, and also because of the world’s domination by a uniquely benign and generous hegemon called the United States of America that is at peace and economically interwoven with its biggest rival, China.

In other words, the world has been the way the world has been these past 80 years because America was the way America was: a superpower ready to let other countries take some advantage of it in trade, because previous presidents understood that if the world grew steadily richer and more peaceful, and if the United States just continued to get the same slice of global G.D.P. — about 25 percent — it would still prosper handsomely because the total pie would grow steadily larger. Which is exactly what happened.

The world has been the way the world has been because China brought more people out of poverty faster than any other country in history, largely on the back of a giant, relentless export engine that took advantage of the U.S.-engineered global free trade system.