Trump’s Tariff and Immigration Plans Threaten Your Guacamole

Opinion|Prepare for Guacamole to Be a Luxury Item

Are you ready for guacamole to become a luxury item?

Donald Trump’s first term is a reminder of the financial damage a trade war can create. After the United States in 2018 imposed tariffs on a range of countries, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Mexico and Turkey struck back against American exports. The Agriculture Department says the retaliation raised the price of farm goods from the United States; that in turn contributed to a decline in export revenues of $27 billion in 2018 and 2019.

Now we’re settling in to watch the same movie again. Hours after Mr. Trump’s late November Truth Social post threatening a new round of tariffs, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, responded, “For every tariff, there will be a response in kind.” Just as a reminder to the incoming administration, about two-thirds of vegetables and almost half of fruit and nut imports to the United States come from Mexico. And how many avocados? Ninety percent.

It’s not just tariffs. American farmers and ranchers, many of whom have supported Mr. Trump, would struggle to find enough workers if he delivers on his vow to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. And financial aid from Washington to offset the damage might not be forthcoming, given the giant size of the federal deficit.

Farms and related businesses would be most directly hit, but the impact would be felt at kitchen tables around the country. The quality and supply of grocery-store staples would suffer and prices would probably rise, something consumers have little appetite for after the pandemic-era inflation spike.

The American food ecosystem, including farms, ranches and processors, has heavily relied on immigrant labor for decades. More than half of farmers reported labor shortages in 2022, up from 14 percent in 2014, according to surveys conducted by researchers at the University of California, Davis, and Michigan State.

In 2022, about seven in 10 farm workers were foreign-born, according to the National Agricultural Workers Survey. Many of those workers obtain seasonal visas. The rest of the immigrant labor pool, as much as 44 percent of foreign farm workers, are undocumented and have no work authorization.