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The Liberal Party, which not long ago seemed destined to crash in federal elections under Justin Trudeau, is experiencing a reversal of fortune. Here’s what a close review of polls shows.
April 6, 2025Updated 10:55 a.m. ET
Though Canada’s election began in earnest only late last month, public opinion polls have captured a gripping political narrative that has been unfolding since the start of the year.
Between President Trump’s trade war, his threats of annexation and the resignation of Canada’s last prime minister, a lot happened in the run-up to this race to shape how voters are feeling.
The election will take place April 28, so there’s plenty of time for things to change, but The New York Times reviewed available public opinion polls, closely examining them for quality and consistency.
Trump continues to wield significant influence.
When Mr. Trump kicked off a trade war and began threatening the nation’s sovereignty in early February, he reversed months of polling trends: Support climbed for the Liberals and shrank for the Conservatives.
In only eight weeks, the Conservative Party’s 20-plus-point lead vanished, and now the Liberals are leading the polls by an average of six percentage points.
