What to Know About the North American Summit Taking Place Without the U.S.

The leaders of Canada and Mexico, the United States’ two largest trading partners, will meet on Thursday — without their U.S. counterpart — after eight months of chaotic trade talks and threats of tariffs.

The talks, between Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada and President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, are expected to focus on trade, as well as investments in areas like mining, agriculture and natural gas.

Both leaders will also discuss preserving their free trade partnership with the United States, which has so far limited the effect of President Trump’s tariffs on their economies. On Tuesday, the three countries opened public consultations on the trade pact, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement, or the U.S.M.C.A., the first step in a review of the agreement.

Mr. Carney and Ms. Sheinbaum are also likely to exchange notes on strategies for dealing with Mr. Trump, whose policies toward Canada and Mexico have differed despite both countries’ deep economic ties to the United States.

Canada and Mexico have failed, so far, to strike a U.S. trade deal like Britain, the European Union and Japan. But Mexico has been given a series of extensions on trade talks, dodging the worst of tariffs and benefiting from the terms of the U.S.M.C.A., which was negotiated during Mr. Trump’s first term.

So Canada and Mexico have started trying to kick-start their relationship. In August, a Canadian delegation traveled to Mexico City for talks, with Canada’s foreign minister, Anita Anand, calling it “an all-hands-on-deck approach.”

What is the state of Mexico-Canada relations?

Though they are bound together in a trade deal with the United States, Mexico and Canada’s own economic and cultural relations have always been distant.

Mexico accounted for 1 percent of Canadian exports last year, and Canada represents around 3 percent of Mexico’s export market. Separated by the United States, both countries long prioritized trade with their giant neighbor rather than building ties with each other across, over or around it.

Some in Canada have even viewed Mexico with distrust. That’s particularly the case in Ontario, which has seen much of its automotive industry dwindle as carmakers have expanded in Mexico and the southern United States.

Mr. Carney will arrive at a low point in relations. The previous government, led by Justin Trudeau, angered Mexico by imposing visas on visitors from Mexico in early 2024. The measure was meant to limit asylum claims in Canada and address American complaints that Mexicans were using Canada as a way to enter the United States.

The North American trade deal has put Mexico and Canada in a relatively advantageous position because nearly all exports traded under the U.S.M.C.A. are free of the U.S. tariffs imposed on Mexican and Canadian goods. Separate global tariffs apply to auto, steel and aluminum.

What do the leaders hope to gain from talks?

Both Canada and Mexico want to reduce trade reliance on the United States.

“When the U.S. treats its partners like adversaries, its partners start acting like allies,” said Daniel Trefler, a trade economist at the University of Toronto who has advised the Canadian government on past trade negotiations.

That said, Professor Trefler said that he had limited expectations for the meeting between Mr. Carney and Ms. Sheinbaum.

“Is it going to be of huge economic import, fundamentally changing the North American economic space? No,” he said.

Industries in both countries have wish lists of products they hope to export. Mexico is looking to expand food exports to Canada, which now relies heavily on the United States for fresh produce during the winter. It is also seeking more investment from Canadian companies.

Sebastián Vallejo Vera, a political scientist at Western University in London, Ontario, said Ms. Sheinbaum may also give Mr. Carney tips on how to navigate an antagonistic U.S. administration.

“The relationship between Mexico and America has been more fraught and for longer than the relationship between Canada and America,” Professor Vallejo Vera said.

The leaders may also decide to try to garner support from political and economic forces beyond the White House — like major corporations linking their countries and U.S. politicians seeking to protect the region’s trade balance.

What are the obstacles and risks?

Even if Mexico and Canada manage to agree on an approach to maintain the trade deal, they hope to avoid the perception that the two countries are ganging up on the United States.

Then there’s the Trump factor.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty when it comes to Trump and his trade policy in general,” Professor Vallejo Vera said. “I don’t think anybody’s very certain on what his next move is going to be.”