What to Watch For at the Oscars: ‘Emilia Pérez,’ Cynthia Erivo and More

When the Ralph Fiennes-led papal thriller “Conclave” secured the highest honor at the 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards last weekend, it seemed like a strong indicator that it would prevail in the best picture category at the Academy Awards on Sunday night. After all, the last three winners of SAG’s top prize — “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “CODA” — all won the best picture statuette at the Oscars.

But it isn’t exactly that clear cut.

Those past three films had essentially swept their awards season, and aside from the SAG Awards, “Conclave” has won only one other best picture title, at the BAFTAs in February.

“Anora,” the comedy-drama about a stripper (played by Mikey Madison) whose modern fairy-tale romance implodes, had several of the other early big wins this season, including two major industry prizes — from the Directors Guild of America and the Producers Guild of America — that almost always signal a best-picture Oscar up ahead.

Also, Edward Berger, the director of “Conclave,” was not nominated for a best directing Oscar. Only six films in the history of the Oscars have won best picture without a best directing nomination, most recently “CODA” in 2022.

Just a few weeks ago, “Emilia Pérez” was on top of the world. The Spanish-language musical out of France had earned 13 Oscar nominations, the most of any film this year (and nearly the most ever), and its lead, Karla Sofía Gascón, made history as the first openly transgender actress to be nominated for an Academy Award, in the best actress category no less.