What to Watch in Today’s Big Elections in Wisconsin and Florida

2 weeks ago 18

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Voters in a crucial court race and two House special elections will provide hints of how the country views President Trump and Elon Musk, months after they took power.

Two side-by-side portraits show Susan Crawford, left, who is wearing a blue blazer over a black shirt, and her opponent, Brad Schimel, right, who is wearing a gray flannel shirt.
The judges Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel are vying for a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court on Tuesday. The winner will tip the court into either a liberal or conservative majority.Credit...Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times, Jim Vondruska for The New York Times

Reid J. EpsteinEmily Cochrane

April 1, 2025, 12:01 a.m. ET

Two states nearly a thousand miles apart will on Tuesday provide the best evidence yet of whether President Trump and his Republican allies maintain robust support or whether they face a growing backlash led by a re-energized Democratic Party.

In Wisconsin, a nearly $100 million race for control of the State Supreme Court has morphed from an important clash over the state’s direction into a referendum on Elon Musk’s supersized role in national politics.

In Florida, one of two special elections for deep-red House seats suddenly seems too close for comfort for Republicans. Democrats, while still expecting to lose, are watching the margins closely for signs that their party is ascendant.

Here are five big questions heading into Tuesday’s elections.

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Elon Musk and groups tied to him have spent more than $25 million backing Mr. Schimel, the conservative candidate for the open court seat.Credit...Jim Vondruska for The New York Times

Mr. Musk’s support for Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin, has been a full-service political operation.

The billionaire and groups tied to him have spent more than $25 million, financing a potent ground game. An army of $25-an-hour canvassers has knocked on Trump voters’ doors, and pallets of glossy mailers have assured Republicans that Judge Schimel is a Trump ally. A conservative nonprofit with ties to Mr. Musk has helped blanket the airwaves with ads bashing the liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, as weak on crime. And Mr. Musk’s giving includes $3 million to the Republican Party of Wisconsin, which has funneled the money to help Judge Schimel.


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