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DealBook|Why the A.I. Rally (and the Bubble Talk) Could Continue Next Year
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/business/dealbook/ai-rally-bubble-2026.html
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Andrew here. If there is one question that has been asked more than any other this year in the business world, it is this: Are we in an artificial intelligence bubble? DealBook’s managing editor, Brian O’Keefe, takes a look at all the arguments for and against that possibility — so you can make up your own mind.
Also: There’s a delicious story in The New Yorker that we highlight in Best of the Rest about a unique phenomenon: Apparently, millennials love getting prenups.
‘Eventually you get a bubble’
It’s the burning question that everyone from Wall Street traders to retail investors is asking right now: Are we in an artificial intelligence bubble?
James van Geelen, a market analyst who spends a lot of time thinking about A.I.’s potential as a disruptive force in markets and business, gets the question a lot. And he’s quick to answer: “If we’re not, we’re going to be,” van Geelen, the founder and C.E.O. of Citrini Research, which specializes in megatrend investing ideas, told DealBook.
“Show me an instance over the past 300 years of a truly transformative technology that didn’t result in an asset bubble — railroads, steam engines, radio, airplanes, the internet,” he said. “When capital floods into a technology because everyone realizes that it’s transformative, eventually you get a bubble.”
If OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 was the watershed moment that brought A.I. to the masses and launched a global race to dominate the technology, then 2025 was the year that the technology transformed markets and the global economy in newly powerful ways.
