How Trump Can Prevent a War Over Taiwan

China and the United States are closer than they’ve ever been to a war over Taiwan.

A dangerous feedback loop has set in over the past decade: Taiwanese defiance toward China provokes aggressive bluster from Beijing, leading to stronger rhetorical support for Taiwan in Washington. The self-reinforcing pattern repeats itself. Each time, it moves Taiwan more to the center of the U.S.-China relationship, increases the risk of conflict and provokes fretful analysis over what to do about this seemingly intractable situation.

This arc was not preordained. Nor is it immutable, and in Donald Trump, the United States has a norm-defying president uniquely positioned to reverse it.

The Trump administration’s best bet for avoiding war would be to boldly seek a fresh deal with China, restoring equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait by offering to dial back U.S. defense buildups in the region and putting Taiwan on notice that American military backup is neither assured nor boundless.

If that seems deceptively simple and logical, it’s because it’s worked before, to everyone’s benefit.

Taiwan has been a thorn in U.S.-China relations ever since Communist forces took control of China in 1949, driving the U.S.-backed Nationalists to Taiwan. China has never given up its goal of unifying the island with the mainland. In the 1970s, Beijing and Washington reached a nuanced compromise: The United States affirmed that the government in Beijing was China’s sole legal authority and acknowledged Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China. America also refrained from supporting Taiwan’s independence and limited contact with Taipei to unofficial channels, even while providing it arms and other military backing.

This ambivalent balancing act proved remarkably successful, with the resulting stability allowing China, Taiwan and much of Asia to prosper. The United States benefited greatly from soaring trade and other cooperation with the region, and to this day Taiwan remains a vibrant, self-governing democracy.

Things began breaking down in earnest in 2016 when Taiwan elected Tsai Ing-wen, a president who departed sharply from her predecessor’s approach of accommodating China, which responded by ramping up military and economic pressure on the island. Mr. Trump, too, irked Beijing, breaking with protocol to accept a congratulatory call from Ms. Tsai after his own 2016 win and easing restrictions on diplomatic contact with Taiwan.

More damage was done under President Joe Biden, who repeatedly said he would send U.S. forces to defend Taiwan against attack, parting from longtime “strategic ambiguity” on that question. (Officials later affirmed that U.S. policy remained unchanged.) And, in 2022, after Nancy Pelosi made the first visit to Taipei by a sitting U.S. speaker of the House in 25 years, Chinese military intimidation of Taiwan escalated.

Mr. Trump, who is seeking deals with China on trade and security, so far appears wary of antagonizing Beijing over this issue in his second term. This summer his administration denied a request by President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan to stop over in the United States en route to Latin America and canceled defense talks with Taipei.

The president must go further by strongly reaffirming that the United States does not support Taiwan independence, reimposing restrictions on diplomatic contact and stopping congressional and State Department efforts to expand Taipei’s participation in international organizations, all of which China opposes. The Trump administration could also remove U.S. military trainers from Taiwan and weapon systems in the region that provoke China as much as they deter it.

Mr. Trump should of course seek reciprocal steps from China, such as a declaration that Beijing has no timeline for achieving unification with Taiwan nor any firm intent to use force. China must also commit to scaling back cyber warfare, military threats and trade sanctions that stoke fear and defiance on Taiwan.

This proposal find receptive ears in Beijing. China, too, hopes to avoid a war and its enormous costs. There is no guarantee that the difficult air, land and sea campaign required to seize Taiwan would succeed, and failure would be humiliating for the Chinese Communist Party, potentially even undermining its legitimacy at home. President Xi Jinping is struggling to rein in persistent corruption in the People’s Liberation Army that could affect military readiness, and it is uncertain whether the country’s slowing economy could withstand a lengthy conflict and the resulting trade disruptions.

Making a deal with China is politically risky for Mr. Trump. Support for Taiwan has grown in Washington, especially in his own party, and the president could face accusations of appeasing Beijing and abandoning a democratic friend. But Mr. Trump is uniquely immune to such pushback. He has whipped a compliant Republican Party and Congress into line and, as a second-term president, needn’t worry about re-election.

At any rate, this isn’t about abandoning Taiwan. It’s merely about reducing its central role in U.S.-China ties. Taiwan is of course valuable to the United States, not only symbolically as a fellow democracy but also as a source of advanced semiconductors. But even all that is not worth America’s going to war. China is a formidable military power, with a growing arsenal of missiles and nuclear weapons that can reach the U.S. mainland. With its military resources already overstretched by conflicts elsewhere, the United States can ill afford conflict with China.

Taiwan has been an important factor in the spiral of destabilization. Mr. Lai, who won office in January 2024, has taken an even more confrontational stance toward China than Ms. Tsai did. Taipei must be made aware that the United States may not be there to help, and should refrain from inflaming Beijing. That, in the end, may be the best way to preserve Taiwan’s freedoms.

An overture like this could, of course, fail. But that would leave the situation no worse than it is now. And merely making the effort would send the important signal that the United States is willing to give and take on issues of great importance to China.

A war between the United States and China would have no winners. Preventing one would rightfully secure Mr. Trump the place in history as a peacemaker that he so covets.

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