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Opinion|Trump’s China Trade Policy Is a Hot Mess
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/03/opinion/trump-china-trade-tariffs.html
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Thomas L. Friedman
Nov. 3, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET
As a real estate developer, Donald Trump is deeply familiar with the three keys to success in that industry: location, location and location. Geopolitics, it turns out, also has three keys to success: leverage, leverage and leverage. But it’s not the kind of leverage (i.e., debt) that Trump loved to use in real estate. It’s geopolitical leverage — the power to impose your will on your adversary.
Seen from that point of view, Trump succeeded in bringing about a cease-fire in Gaza because he gained leverage over both Israel and Hamas — and he used it adroitly. He has failed to bring about a cease-fire in Ukraine, because he has refused to use all the leverage he has on Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who started the war. And Trump’s attempts to employ the leverage of tariffs to reduce China’s manufacturing exports to America — more necessary today than ever — has shown only limited gains largely because of the chaotic way Trump has gone about putting those tariffs into place.
Of course, Trump, with his usual bluster, scored his recent meeting with President Xi Jinping of China as a grand slam — “a 12” on a scale of 0-10, as he put it. In fact, at this summit, all Trump did was dig himself out of a hole with China that he himself dug a few months ago. As The Wall Street Journal noted, markets “yawned” at the deal because it “mostly restores the status quo that prevailed in May.”
So, if you’re keeping score at home, Trump is batting one for three — or .333. In baseball, that can get you into the All-Star Game. In the game of nations, it gets you sent down to the minor leagues.
Why .333? Let’s focus on China, which is the most important geostrategic, geoeconomic issue for America today.
Any analysis of China has to start with the fact that as a result of the devastating bursting of China’s housing bubble over the last few years, millions of Chinese have lost significant amounts of money and become burdened with debt. Not surprisingly, they are scrimping on spending. I am told that many of the half-empty restaurants I saw in Beijing and Shanghai when I was there last March are even worse off today.
