PCE Inflation Stayed Stable in July, Keeping Fed on Track to Lower Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation stayed steady in July, keeping the central bank on track to begin lowering interest rates as soon its next meeting in September.

Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in July and were up 2.6 percent from a year earlier, according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index that was released by the commerce department on Friday. That was the same annual pace registered the previous period.

“Core” prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs and are seen as a more reliable gauge of underlying inflation, rose 0.3 percent from the previous month. Compared with the same time last year, those prices were up 2.9 percent, slightly higher than June’s year-over-year increase.

Are Price Pressures at an Inflection Point?

President Trump’s tariffs have started to push up consumer prices, but what is not yet clear is how much further they are set to rise and whether this will lead to a temporary burst in inflation or something more persistent.

The impact has been most noticeable in products highly exposed to the levies, like furniture, appliances and other household wares as well as recreation goods and footwear. There have been some signs that prices across the services sector have started to firm as well, but that could end up just being a blip.

Many companies have been able to hold off on raising prices for customers because they built up large inventories before the tariffs went into effect. But as those stockpiles dwindle, chief executives have been left with a difficult decision to either absorb the higher costs or pass along those added expenses to their customers.