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Russian forces have moved several miles into Ukrainian-held territory in the east, threatening to outflank Ukraine’s positions.
Aug. 12, 2025, 7:26 a.m. ET
Russian forces are striving to shape the battlefield to their advantage before a high-stakes summit between President Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin, making a swift advance in eastern Ukraine after months of grinding battle.
In recent days, Russia’s troops broke through a segment of Ukraine’s defensive line near the city of Pokrovsk, a longtime stronghold. They have advanced several miles into Ukrainian-held territory, threatening to outflank Ukraine’s positions.
“The situation is quite chaotic, as the enemy, having found gaps in the defense, is infiltrating deep inside, trying to quickly establish a foothold and accumulate forces for further advancement,” said DeepState, a Ukrainian group with ties to the military that maps the battlefield.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said in his evening address on Monday that the Russians “are redeploying their troops and forces in ways that suggest preparations for new offensive operations” and that they are “not preparing for a cease-fire or an end to the war.”
Ukraine, too, is seeking an edge before the Russian-American peace talks on Friday in Alaska. Kyiv has ramped up attacks on Russian oil refineries, doubling down on its strategy of pressuring Russia into making concessions during negotiations by targeting the Kremlin’s main revenue source to fund the war.
Pressing their advantage as peace talks gather pace has been a recurring tactic of both sides throughout the current war and the one that preceded it starting in 2014. Ukraine’s bold June drone attacks deep inside Russia, which destroyed many strategic bombers, came just a day before negotiations in Istanbul. In 2015, Russia intensified fighting during cease-fire talks, surrounding the eastern town of Debaltseve, to force political concessions from Kyiv.
Russia’s recent push near Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk region, sends a stark warning that Moscow’s forces remain capable of making rapid gains on the battlefield. It comes as Mr. Putin is expected to present Mr. Trump with major demands during Friday’s talks, which could include an insistence that Ukraine cede the part of the Donetsk region that Kyiv still holds.
Pokrovsk, which was once a critical logistical hub for Ukrainian forces in the east, is now semiencircled from the northeast to the southwest. Ukrainian troops must pass through a narrow 10-mile corridor to enter the city, leaving them vulnerable to drone attacks.
Russian forces are likely to try to tighten their noose around the city to force Ukrainian troops to withdraw, a tactic they have successfully used to capture other cities.
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Pasi Paroinen, an analyst for the Finland-based Black Bird Group, which tracks battlefield movements, said Russian forces had quickly infiltrated Ukrainian lines at a depth of roughly 10 miles in the past three days, a contrast to Russia’s usual slow grind.
The “next 24-48 hours will likely be crucial” in whether the Ukrainian Army can contain the push, Mr. Paroinen wrote on X.
Even as both sides keep fighting, they have tried to show Mr. Trump, who has long condemned the war as a costly waste of lives and resources, that they remain committed to pursuing peace.
After Russia increased drone attacks on Ukrainian cities during talks last month between Moscow and Washington, Mr. Trump’s typically lenient tone toward Mr. Putin soured noticeably. “He talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Putin. “So there’s a little bit of a problem there. I don’t like it.”
Since the beginning of August, however, Russia has significantly scaled back its drone attacks in what analysts have called an apparent attempt to curry favor with Mr. Trump. While Russia launched an average of 201 drones per night in July — a record in the war — the figure has dropped to 78 drones per night so far this month, according to a New York Times analysis of data released by the Ukrainian Air Force.
“The Russians know very well how to read Trump’s mind,” Oleksandr Kraiev, the director of the North America program at the Kyiv research group Ukrainian Prism, said in a phone interview. “It’s not a coincidence that drone attacks have decreased.”
Kyiv, which was hit especially hard this summer, has been largely spared from attacks so far this month, with air-raid alerts now sounding only briefly at night and lasting an hour at most.
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When Mr. Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, a retired army general, visited the country for a few days last month, Russia significantly eased its drone attacks, prompting Ukrainians to refer to him jokingly as the “Kellogg shield.”
“General Kellogg arrived in Ukraine, and there were no massive bombings for two nights in a row,” Mr. Zelensky told Newsmax at the time. “This means one thing: Putin is afraid of America.”
But with Mr. Trump’s history of deference to Mr. Putin, Kyiv is concerned that the Russian leader may succeed in winning Mr. Trump over to his perspective on the war by securing a one-on-one meeting that could sideline Mr. Zelensky.
The Kremlin has long said an end to the fighting would need to address what it calls the “root causes” of the war — shorthand for a range of issues, including the existence of Ukraine as a fully independent and sovereign nation aligned with the West.
To prevent that outcome, Kyiv has rallied its European allies to pressure the Trump administration against letting Russia dictate the terms of the peace talks. A statement released Tuesday by all European Union member states except Hungary said that “the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine.”
Several European leaders, together with Mr. Zelensky, will join an online meeting with Mr. Trump on Wednesday. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said the discussions would focus on “options to exert pressure on Russia,” on preparations for potential peace negotiations and on issues of territorial claims and security.
Kyiv and European capitals are especially worried that Mr. Trump could agree to Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede sizable portions of land it still controls. The American leader has insisted in recent days that a peace deal would involve “some land swapping” — to which Mr. Zelensky responded, “Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier.”
Kyiv and its European allies insist that any meaningful peace talks begin only after a cease-fire and that the current front line should be the starting point of negotiations. But with Russia’s swift gains in the east in recent days, this line may have shifted by Friday.
Kim Barker contributed reporting.
Constant Méheut reports on the war in Ukraine, including battlefield developments, attacks on civilian centers and how the war is affecting its people.
