The Fierce Jockeying for House Seats That Don’t Exist (Yet)

Representative Ami Bera has been in Congress for more than a decade, but he still isn’t sure which House district he’ll run for next year in California.

Dr. Bera, a six-term Democrat and a physician, might stick with his Sixth District, based in Sacramento County. Or, he said, he might challenge Representative Kevin Kiley, a Republican whose largely rural conservative Third District could soon gain a large swath of Democratic neighborhoods.

A Nov. 4 ballot measure could scramble the political landscape in California by gerrymandering its congressional districts and creating new possibilities even for longtime House members. Before a single vote has been tallied, the shadowboxing has already begun in earnest among California Democrats, who are looking to gain as many as five seats in 2026 if the maps change.

Prospective candidates are jockeying for position, letting it be known that they have eyes on districts that don’t actually exist yet. Some have declared their designs publicly by opening campaign accounts and rolling out websites with endorsements. Others have worked behind the scenes, leaving campaign strategists to signal to one another who might run for which seat and even begin passing around opposition research — as long as voters approve Proposition 50.

“You’ve got a bunch of people in a holding pattern,” said Dan Newman, a Democratic consultant in California and an adviser to Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has championed the ballot measure. “It’s like they’re trying to complete a puzzle where they’re missing a piece.”

Proposition 50 has prompted a free-for-all among state Democrats, from veteran lawmakers to first-time candidates and failed former challengers. It was created as a response to a similar gerrymandering effort passed by Republicans in Texas and spurred by President Trump in an attempt to bolster their party’s control of Congress next year.