Trump’s Lonely Trade Crusade

Opinion|Trump Thought He Was Leading on Trade. No One Is Following.

When the United States pushed to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers in the wake of World War II, much of the world followed its lead, embracing the argument from America’s leaders that increasing trade would increase prosperity.

Now, as President Trump pushes to reverse that history, raising new barriers to limit imports, it is increasingly clear that the world is no longer persuaded by America’s approach to economic policy. Other nations are not, for the most part, retaliating against the Trump administration’s policies by imposing higher tariffs on American goods. They also are not, for the most part, imposing higher tariffs on goods imported from countries other than the United States. The rest of the world is rejecting Mr. Trump’s protectionism.

Mr. Trump’s top trade adviser, Jamieson Greer, recently wrote in a guest essay for Times Opinion that the Trump administration is forging a “new global trading order.” In reality, the United States is walking out of the system it created. While other nations regret its departure, they are not inclined to follow in its self-destructive footsteps. Fears of a global trade war have not materialized because the leaders of other nations have recognized what Mr. Trump seems unable to grasp — that by raising tariffs, they would be hurting their own countries. The result, as the World Trade Organization reported last month, is that “a broader cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation that could be very damaging to global trade has so far been avoided.”

A sign of the folly of Mr. Trump’s trade policy is that it has inspired no apparent envy.

One reason that other nations are not raising their own tariffs is that Mr. Trump’s policies are not delivering the promised benefits. The president has long insisted that higher tariffs would protect American manufacturers from unfair foreign competition, leading American consumers to buy more goods produced in American factories, which in turn would expand domestic employment. But the number of Americans with factory jobs has declined by 28,000 since Mr. Trump took office. While the administration has cited some big, high-profile investments in new factories, the broader pattern is that companies are canceling or delaying their expansion plans. Spending on factory construction in the United States, a good indicator of the outlook for domestic manufacturing, declined in each of the first six months of Mr. Trump’s second term, ending a period of rapid growth under President Joe Biden.

Factories are long-term investments, and Mr. Trump has given companies little reason for confidence in his own constancy. Moreover, because he has imposed the tariffs by fiat, rather than obtaining congressional approval, what he has done can easily be undone by a future administration. And a federal appeals court ruled in August that many of the new tariffs are illegal. The Trump administration is appealing that decision to the Supreme Court.

Tariffs also are a double-edged sword for American manufacturers, raising the prices of imported materials and components. Many of the products “Made in America” include a significant share of parts and materials made in other countries.