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Trump and Putin meet today in Alaska to discuss the future of the Ukraine war. Not present: anyone from Ukraine.
The facts are not in flux. The battle lines have barely shifted over the last few years. The objectives of Russia and Ukraine haven’t changed, either.
And yet anything could happen — because nobody knows what Trump will do. In the last seven months, his positions on the war have swung wildly. He humiliated the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the Oval Office. Then he questioned Putin’s honesty and threatened to place harsher sanctions on Moscow; he seemed to have changed his tune.
Then last week, Trump abruptly gave the Russian president his long-desired one-on-one meeting — and left Zelensky off the guest list. Ukraine and its European allies fear that Trump will cut a deal with Putin.
What should we expect from today’s meeting? David Sanger, a White House and national security reporter, explains some possibilities:
A cease-fire. Ukraine and Europe say this must precede negotiations. Putin has resisted.
Land swaps. Trump and Putin may try to redraw Ukraine’s borders, solidifying some of Russia’s battlefield gains. Ukraine strongly opposes this idea.
Security guarantees. A deal could include a promise that Western nations will protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression.
NATO repudiation. The alliance says Ukraine can join eventually. Putin would prefer never, and Trump appears sympathetic to his view.
A grand bargain. Putin is bringing a business delegation, possibly to talk about access to minerals. He also mentioned a possible replacement for the New START nuclear treaty.
What to know
It’s hard to remember the important milestones on the road to Alaska. Here are some ways to understand the war:
Who’s winning? It’s not quite a stalemate. Russia has captured large tracts of Ukraine — but not nearly as much as Putin wants. After Ukraine decimated Russia’s underequipped forces in 2022, the Russian president re-engineered his country to serve the war. Russia has paid huge sums to recruit new soldiers and invested heavily in Iranian-designed drones. Putin has been willing to sacrifice his own soldiers, incurring about twice as many casualties as Ukraine. This multimedia story by Times journalists in Europe shows how the grinding war of attrition favors Russia.
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Ukraine can still hurt Russia. It has shown how drone warfare can make up for having less money and fewer soldiers. Consider Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine’s sneak attack that caused billions of dollars in damage deep inside Russia. The drones it used cost as little as $600 each. Listen to this fascinating episode of “The Daily” about the operation.
The Trump-Putin relationship. Trump seems to hold Russia’s president in high esteem, reflecting his general admiration for strongmen. He’s still annoyed about accusations that Russian interference in 2016 helped him get elected. As Mark Mazzetti, an investigative reporter in Washington, D.C., put it, “Mr. Trump’s anger about what he calls the ‘Russia hoax’ has festered for years, a grievance so deep he now sees Mr. Putin as his ally in victimhood.”
The war that changed war. Thousands of drones have turned the skies over Ukraine (and sometimes Russia) into a lethal laboratory. It has spurred a Darwinian contest to see who can dominate the conflict — and perhaps every conflict thereafter. Read this mind-blowing story by C.J. Chivers, a former Marine who documented the drone arms race.
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All 800 National Guard troops whom Trump ordered into the streets of Washington have mobilized for duty, the Pentagon said.
Federal authorities attempted to clear homeless encampments in the city’s northwest.
The chief and other leaders at the D.C. police department now need approval from the “emergency” commissioner to issue any directives, Bondi said.
City leaders say Trump is trying to solve a crime problem that he made worse.
Redistricting
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Newsom’s redistricting plan aims to help Democrats win more seats, to balance Trump’s push for more Republican seats in Texas and elsewhere. Other Democratic governors are pursuing different strategies.
The fight could help Newsom, who is contemplating a presidential run in 2028, position himself as a national leader taking on Trump.
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War in Gaza
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Thunder Ranch: One of America’s best-known gun schools offers firearms as a way to change your life when all else fails.
Ask the Therapist: “I hate how my sister’s husband treats her. Can I intervene?”
Your pick: In The Morning’s most clicked article yesterday, the late night hosts had things to say about Trump hosting the Kennedy Center Honors.
Machine thinker: The British philosopher and cognitive scientist Margaret Boden, who has died at 88, used the language of computers to explore human thought. She had prescient insights about A.I.
SPORTS
N.F.L.: A court ruled that the Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and other Black coaches can proceed with a lawsuit accusing the league of discrimination.
Business: The state of sports streaming remains in flux, as M.L.B. negotiates with Netflix, ESPN, NBC and Apple. Here’s what you should know.
BOOMING BUSINESS
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The last few years were a boom time for live music. While Taylor Swift’s Eras tour grabbed headlines for soaring ticket prices, another genre has gained steam: hip-hop. This summer, artists including Kendrick Lamar, Drake and Tyler, the Creator, have packed venues across the world. YoungBoy Never Broke Again, fresh from a Trump pardon, plans an arena tour this fall. It’s selling well for an artist who built a following with little radio success. Read more about rap’s growing share of the live music business.
More on culture
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The late night hosts joked about today’s Trump-Putin summit.
KILLER STYLE
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Patrick Bateman had a skin care routine before it was cool. Now he has his own fragrance and a Manhattan cocktail bar. And his signature look (double-breasted jacket, slicked-back hair) has become a sartorial inspiration.
Bateman, the serial-killing Wall Street banker played by Christian Bale in “American Psycho,” was a piece of satire. He frequents trendy nightclubs, flaunts his credit cards and, only occasionally, murders people with a chain saw. Yet his style has gone mainstream. Is it possible, Jameson Montgomery asks, that we’re missing the joke?
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
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Adam Pasick oversees the Times's portfolio of newsletters, including The Morning, DealBook, and pop-ups like the Coronavirus Briefing.
