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news analysis
Analysts say that despite its vast losses in Gaza, Hamas believes it can hold out for a deal that ensures its survival.
Sept. 5, 2025, 5:22 a.m. ET
Israel has killed thousands of Hamas’s fighters, taken out most of its senior military command and destroyed much of its arsenal and underground tunnel network.
The country’s relentless military campaign has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, cities have been reduced to rubble, and people have struggled daily to find enough food, water and electricity.
And yet Hamas has refused to surrender. The group wants to secure its future in Gaza, but its unwillingness to give up to Israel and disarm is also rooted in its ideology.
Since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which ignited the war in Gaza, the group’s leaders have acknowledged that the resulting Israeli counterattack has caused enormous destruction. But they have said it is a “price” Palestinians must pay for their ultimate freedom.
In interviews, some Hamas leaders have said that the group’s calculation was less about defeating Israel on the battlefield, and more about drawing the government into an intractable conflict, one that isolates it diplomatically and undermines its international support. Eventually, they say, Israel will be compelled to realize that its policies toward Palestinians are not sustainable.
“Surrender, as Israel and America are calling for it, is not in Hamas’s dictionary,” said Khaled al-Hroub, a professor at Northwestern University in Qatar who has written books about the group.
