How Maduro Future-Proofed His Dictatorship in Venezuela

Opinion|Maduro Might Not Last. But His System Could Survive.

For years, observers have been predicting the fall of President Nicolás Maduro. But the Venezuelan dictator has clung to power, even in the face of one of the worst economic contractions in modern history, sagging approval ratings, overwhelming electoral setbacks and severe international financial sanctions.

Mr. Maduro’s survival offers critical insight on why it is so difficult to bring down autocracies. Autocratic resilience is not accidental. It’s the result of steady repression and the co-opting of political and economic institutions. During his 12 years in power, Mr. Maduro has essentially built a two-tiered system: one that exerts quasi-totalitarian control over the vast majority of Venezuelan society, and another that functions as a lucrative, highly decentralized circle of influence, stacked with loyal allies who are rewarded with discretionary powers and economic freedoms and are deeply invested in seeing the regime survive.

Although he has never been widely popular, Mr. Maduro did not start out as a ruthless dictator. When he was elected Venezuela’s president in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chávez, he inherited a movement that largely backed him as Chávez’s handpicked successor. As oil prices collapsed and the economy cratered, whatever popular support he had eroded rapidly, leading him to abandon any pretense of democracy.

Early on in his tenure, in the face of soaring inflation, Mr. Maduro expanded the use of so-called enabling laws that allowed him to govern by decree. He went after businesses not complying with price controls and repressed a major student-led anti-government protest.

As time went on, Mr. Maduro began to establish the first tier of his dictatorship in earnest, drawing from the standard authoritarian tool kit. He went after key political figures, arresting opposition party leaders Leopoldo López and Antonio Ledezma and barring María Corina Machado, then a congresswoman and the most recent winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, from public office for a year. He started managing elections with a heavier hand — altering election timetables to his advantage, blocking a referendum that could have recalled him, creating fake opposition groups, using government handouts to influence votes and outright banning opposition candidates and parties from running.

He spent the next decade packing the courts with compliant judges, weaponizing the law to silence his critics, spying on the armed forces and unleashing brutal suppression on citizens who protested his rule. These tactics reached their apex in 2024 when Mr. Maduro, having apparently lost the presidential election to an opposition force organized by Ms. Machado, wielded a combination of electoral manipulation, a loyal judiciary and armed crackdowns to declare a victory.